"Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks" with Simon van Norden (HEC Montreal). Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics. (Link to working-paper version)
“Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions” with Katherine Marsten. Journal of Applied Econometrics (2015). doi: 10.1002/jae.2485 Link to working paper version.
“Teaching an Economics Capstone Course Based on Current Issues in Monetary Policy.” Eastern Economic Journal, 41 (Fall 2015), pp. 504-512. doi:10.1057/eej.2015.12 Link to working paper version.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature 49 (March 2011), pp. 72-100. Link to working paper version.
"An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," BE Journal of Macroeconomics: Contributions 10 (2010), Article 10. Click here to go to a page containing data and programs. Link to working paper version.
“Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks,” with Charles Evans (Chicago Fed). Journal of Monetary Economics 53 (September 2006), pp. 1135–1160. Link to working paper version.
“Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data.” In: Graham Elliott, Clive W.J. Granger, and Allan Timmermann, eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 2006), pp. 961–982. (Link to working paper version, 102KB)
“Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?” North American Journal of Economics and Finance 16 (December 2005), pp. 435–450. Link to working paper version.
“A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed). Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (August 2003), pp. 605–617.
“Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy,” with Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins). Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 35 (August 2003), pp. 473–484.
“Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed), Journal of Macroeconomics 24 (December 2002), pp. 507-31. Also, a “Reply” to formal comments, pp. 563-7.
“Comments on: The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting.” Journal of Macroeconomics 24 (December 2002), pp. 483-9.
“A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed), Journal of Econometrics 105 (November 2001), pp. 111-130.
“Evaluating McCallum’s Rule When Monetary Policy Matters,” with Tom Stark, Journal of Macroeconomics 20 (Summer 1998), pp. 451-85.
“Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28 (August 1996), pp. 279-93.
“The Marginal Cost of Funds with Nonseparable Public Spending,” with Shaghil Ahmed, Public Finance Quarterly 24 (April 1996), pp. 216-36.
“The Importance of the Tax System for Determining the Marginal Cost of Funds,” with Shaghil Ahmed, Public Finance / Finances Publiques 50 (2/1995), pp. 173-81.
“A Measure of Federal Reserve Credibility,” with Ronald S. Koot, Journal of Policy Modeling 16 (April 1994), pp. 215-31.
“Money in the Utility Function: Functional Equivalence to a Shopping-Time Model,” Journal of Macroeconomics 15 (Winter 1993), pp. 175-82.
“Economic Stability and the Government Deficit,” with Ronald S. Koot and David A. Walker, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 12 (Spring 1990), pp. 390-403.
“The Effect of Government Deficits on Consumption and Interest Rates: A Two-Equation Approach,” Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics 28 (Spring 1989), pp. 85-129.
“Government Financial Policy and Capital,” Southern Economic Journal 54 (October 1987), pp. 435-48.
“The Neutrality of Optimal Government Financial Policy: Supplying the Intergenerational Free Lunch,” Eastern Economic Journal 13 (April-June 1987), pp. 123-36.
"Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value for Research." Third Quarter 2010. (pdf, 364KB)
“Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?” Third Quarter 2006. (pdf, 272KB)
“U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change,” Second Quarter 2003. (pdf, 364KB)
“How Do Forecasts Respond to Changes in Monetary Policy?” with Laurence Ball, Fourth Quarter 2001. (pdf, 530KB)
“A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” September/October 2000. (pdf, 256 KB)
“How Useful Are Forecasts of Corporate Profits?” September/October 1999. (pdf, 252KB)
“Low Inflation: The Surprise of the 1990s,” July/August 1998. (pdf, 132KB)
“The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years,” March/April 1997. (pdf, 208KB)
“Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?” May/June 1996.
“Evaluating McCallum's Rule for Monetary Policy,” with Tom Stark, Jan./Feb. 1995.
“Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters,” November/December 1993.
“What Are the Costs of Disinflation?” May/June 1992.
“How Big is Your Share of Government Debt?” November/December 1990.
Chapters in Books
“Using Real-World Applications to Policy and Everyday Life to Teach Money and Banking.” Chapter 60 in: Gail M. Hoyt and KimMarie McGoldrick, eds., International Handbook on Teaching and Learning Economics (Northampton, Mass.: Edward Elgar, 2012), pp. 628-637.
(working paper version)
“Real-Time Forecasting.” In: Matthew Higgins, ed., Advances in Forecasting (Kalamazoo, Michigan: W.E. Upjohn Institute, 2011), pp. 7-24.
(working paper version)
“Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages.” Chapter 9 of Michael P. Clements and David Hendry, eds., Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 247-267. (working paper version)