Should Lebron Have Really won the 2019-2020 MVP?
By: George Gibson and Sam Shapiro
The Most Valuable Player, or MVP, can be one of the most contentious awards given out on a yearly basis. With a vague description the only tool at voters’ disposal, results are often questioned by fans and pundits alike. While it is nearly impossible to make an air-tight case for MVP, with advanced statistics one is able to create a framework for analyzing a player’s value.
During the 2019-20 NBA season, two stories dominated headlines—whether or not Giannis’ record-setting Bucks team could continue to be the best regular-season team in the league, and if Lebron James could lead the Lakers back to the promise land with Anthony Davis now in tow and a seemingly always loaded Western Conferences lurking in the foreground. Since most MVP races are carried by narratives, Giannis was able to convince voters that he deserved to win the MVP as he led the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA-best 56-17 record. However, was he truly the better statistical player than LeBron James?
Head to Head Comparison
Giannis Bested Lebron in Several Categories to take home his 2nd MVP.
| Advanced Stats | LeBron James | Giannis Antetokounmpo |
|---|---|---|
| Player Efficiency Rating (PER) | 25.5 | 31.9 |
| Offense Box +/- | 6.6 | 7.4 |
| Defense Box +/- | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| True Shooting Percentage (TS%) | 0.577 | 0.613 |
| Usage Rate (USG) | 31.5 | 37.5 |
| Offensive Rating | 115.8 | 108.4 |
| Defensive Rating | 103.4 | 104.8 |
| Net Rating | 12.3 | 3.6 |
| Win Shares | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| Win Shares per 48 minutes | 0.204 | 0.279 |
| Points per 36 minutes | 26.4 | 34.9 |
| Rebounds per 36 | 8.2 | 16.1 |
| Assists per 36 | 10.6 | 6.6 |
| Steals per 36 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Blocks per 36 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Turnovers per 36 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
Based on the statistics above, it is clear that Giannis Antetokounmpo was the better individual statistical player during the 2019-20 season. However, there are a few interesting things to note: Giannis’ had a significantly higher Player Efficiency Rating (PER) than James’, illustrating that on a per-minute basis the Bucks’ star was more impactful to his team. Similarly, Antetokounmpo yielded a higher usage rate than Lebron’s 31.5 showing that Giannis was involved in more of his team’s total plays than James. This was not unsurprising, since Lebron has been in the league for ten more seasons and he has Anthony Davis, a top-5 player, as his teammate. If James had been more involved in the Laker’s offense as the only true superstar present, his usage rate and PER may have been closer to Antetokounmpo’s.
Despite trailing Giannis in most categories, James bested Antetokounmpo in offensive rating and net rating by 7.4 and 8.7 points, respectively. James was certainly the better passer between the two, and offensive rating takes assists into account along with other methods of scoring such as field goals, free throws and rebounds. James was clearly dominant in this category, which also led him to a significantly higher net rating.
In conclusion, Antetokounmpo was the correct choice for the NBA MVP this season. He won the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the advanced statistics show that he was better than James on a per-night and per-minute basis. However, the large discrepancy between the net ratings of James and Antetokounmpo may answer a different question: Why was James a 2019-20 NBA champion while Antetokounmpo watched the Finals from his couch?